AML-governed analysis of geographic sentencing disparities using Ministry of Justice Crown Court sentencing data. Phase 1 focuses on geographic variance patterns across police force areas.
AML governance analysis identified statistically significant variance in sentencing length across police force areas for identical offence categories. Analysis controlled for offence type and applied Welch's t-test with p < 0.05 threshold.
4 geographic contradictions detected and published. Demographic analysis (Phase 2) held pending multivariate regression to control for confounding variables.
Devon/Cornwall: Mean sentence 49.3 months (n=87)
Sussex: Mean sentence 18.1 months (n=156)
Statistical significance: p = 0.0007, 95% CI [14.2, 48.2]
Hampshire: Mean sentence 86.2 months (n=113)
Durham: Mean sentence 37.9 months (n=48)
Statistical significance: p = 0.0179, 95% CI [8.3, 88.3]
Merseyside: Mean sentence 33.8 months (n=203)
South Wales: Mean sentence 13.3 months (n=89)
Statistical significance: p = 0.0211, 95% CI [3.1, 37.9]
Humberside: Mean sentence 18.7 months (n=267)
Derbyshire: Mean sentence 9.4 months (n=198)
Statistical significance: p = 0.0031, 95% CI [3.2, 15.5]
Additional contradictions detected in demographic and sex-based sentencing patterns. Phase 2 requires multivariate regression analysis to control for confounding variables including prior convictions, plea timing, legal representation, and offence sub-categories. Publishing held pending peer review and validation against existing academic literature (Lammy Review 2017, Sentencing Council data).
| Dataset | Period | Published | Records |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crown Court Sentencing Outcomes | 2020-2024 | May 2024 | 1,067,545 |
| Sampling Rate | 1 in 50 records analyzed | ||
Source: Ministry of Justice Crown Court Sentencing Outcomes (CC_sentence_outcomes.csv)
Available: gov.uk/government/statistics/criminal-court-statistics-quarterly
Analysis examined 6 major offence categories across 43 police force areas. Sample included 1 in 50 records from 2020-2024 dataset for computational efficiency while maintaining statistical validity.
Statistical Method: Welch's t-test (does not assume equal variance)
Significance Threshold: p < 0.05
Confidence Intervals: 95%
Minimum Sample Size: n ≥ 10 per group
Analysis duration: 6 hours including data extraction, AML module creation, statistical validation, and dashboard generation. Traditional equivalent: 4-6 weeks.
Full Dataset Analysis: This analysis sampled 1 in 50 records. Full dataset analysis (all 1,067,545 records) available on request for commissioned work. Contact for enterprise licensing and bespoke analysis.
Geographic disparities flagged when variance exceeded 30% threshold AND p-value < 0.05 AND sample size ≥ 10. Rules defined mathematically in AML format, executed deterministically.
Demographic findings held based on AML governance variable: PUBLISH_DEMOGRAPHICS = FALSE. Requires additional validation. Publishing decision encoded in governance layer, not manual editorial choice.
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