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Child Maintenance Service Analysis

AML-governed analysis of UK Child Maintenance Service operations using DWP quarterly statistics. The analysis detected contradictions between stated policy objectives and operational outcomes.

Published 1 March 2026
Analysis Duration 4 hours
Data Period Jul-Sep 2025 (Q3)
Cases Analyzed 780,600

Executive Summary

Findings Overview

AML governance analysis identified three contradictions between CMS policy statements and operational data. Fee revenue from Collect and Pay arrangements represents 24% of total maintenance. Tribunal appeal outcomes differ significantly from Mandatory Reconsideration outcomes. Collect and Pay usage contradicts stated Direct Pay preference.

Key Findings

High Severity
Fee revenue represents 24.0% of child maintenance collected via Collect and Pay arrangements

£289.2M annually collected in fees (20% NRP surcharge + 4% RP deduction) from 334,700 Collect and Pay cases. Average £864 per case annually.

Legislation: Child Maintenance (Fees) Regulations 2014
Critical
Tribunal overturn rate (58.2%) differs from Mandatory Reconsideration rate (28.6%) by 29.6 percentage points

Based on Q3 2025 data: 24,400 MR applications received, 18,200 cleared. 1,350 tribunal appeals, 550 outcomes recorded. Statistical disparity indicates systematic difference in decision revision rates.

Legislation: Child Support Act 1991 s20 (Appeal rights)
High Severity
Collect and Pay arrangements represent 42.9% of caseload, contradicting stated Direct Pay preference

334,700 cases on Collect and Pay vs 445,900 on Direct Pay. Increased 1.9 percentage points over 4 quarters despite policy stating Direct Pay is the preferred arrangement type.

Policy: CMS guidance states Direct Pay is the preferred arrangement

Data Provenance

Dataset Period Published Source
CMS Quarterly Statistics Q3 2025 16 Dec 2025 DWP
SSCS Tribunal Statistics Q3 2025 18 Dec 2025 MoJ

All source data publicly available at gov.uk/government/collections/child-maintenance-service-statistics

Methodology

AML Governance Application

Analysis timeline: Data acquired 1 March 2026 19:00. AML module created 20:30. Analysis complete 23:00. Total duration: 4 hours including module development, data extraction, and dashboard generation.

Governance rules defined mathematically in AML format. Thresholds: variance > 5%, p < 0.05 for statistical significance. Deterministic execution with full audit trail.

Traditional research timeline for equivalent analysis: 6-9 weeks (data extraction, statistical analysis, report writing, peer review).

Interactive Dashboard

Downloads

📋 AML Module

Governance rules applied (.aml format)

💾 Analysis Results

Machine-readable findings (JSON)

📊 Standalone Dashboard

Interactive HTML visualization

Note: OS Infinity governance engine is proprietary. AML modules provided for transparency and verification. Enterprise licensing available.

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